April 2026
Q1 2026 is officially in the record books, just not for reasons anyone was hoping for. March alone saw maximum temperature records broken or tied across the country for up to 12 consecutive days, leading to questions about whether this is an anomaly or a new baseline. For US agriculture, the answer matters. As we head into planting season, here are five weather signals that anyone who eats food should be paying attention to this year.
1. Colorado snowpack is far below normal
As of April 6, the Upper Colorado River Basin, the vast geographic area where snowmelt and rainfall drain into a shared river system, held the equivalent of just 4 inches of water in its snowpack. In a typical year, April 6 is when snowpack accumulations peaks at an average of 16 inches.
This matters because the Colorado River underpins summer irrigation across the entire basin, which produces roughly 90% of U.S. winter leafy greens, along with significant volumes of alfalfa and hay that feed dairy and beef cattle. Less snow now means less water later, precisely when crops and livestock need it most.
2. California’s Sierra snowpack is near historic lows
California’s Sierra Nevada snowpack is currently sitting at 7-25% of normal, making this the second-lowest level ever recorded. While snowpack typically peaks around April 1, this year it likely peaked over a month earlier on February 24.[iii]
The short-term good news is that California entered the water year with above-average reservoir levels, which has so far buffered Central Valley farmers from immediate cutbacks. The longer-term concern is structural, as the Central produces about 25% of all food consumed in the US.
3. Drought now covers 60% of the continental US, hitting wheat country hard
About 60% of the continental US is currently experiencing drought conditions[iv], with soil moisture in key wheat-producing regions falling below the 10th percentile. In the two largest producing wheat states, Kansas and Oklahoma, less than half of the crop is currently rated good to excellent[v]. Yield impacts won’t be known until harvest, but stress this early in the season is not a good sign. This matters because winter wheat is the crop that becomes the bread, flour, and tortillas we eat every day.
While drought is concerning, heavy, unexpected rain can also impact yields. For example, the current bout of rain in California, right at the start of strawberry harvesting, can bruise delicate strawberries and cause premature decay. The 2026 growing season is proving how unpredictable farming is becoming with volatile swings in temperature and precipitation.
4. Wildfire risk is rising, and agriculture is already feeling it
Wildfires have already burned 1.6M acres this year, which represents 231% of the 10‑year average. Last month’s Morrill Fire in Nebraska was the largest wildfire in state history and displaced more than 35,000 cows[vi] at a time when the US herd size is at its lowest. This could have major repercussions for increased meat prices over the next few months. Wildfire is destructive for agriculture because beyond disrupting grazing systems, it destroys fencing and infrastructure, threatens water supplies, and introduces smoke and heat stress that reduce crop yields and livestock productivity.
5. El Niño could help the US but hurt other parts of the world
In March, NOAA issued an El Niño Watch, with a 61% chance of development in May-July[vii]. If it arrives on schedule, El Niño could bring meaningful moisture to the Corn Belt and suppress wildfire activity in parts of the US.
But climate systems are interconnected. The same pattern could also increase drought risk in Australia, southern and central Africa, India, and parts of South America, reminding us that global food systems are increasingly exposed to shared climate shocks.
What this means going forward
Weather patterns are becoming more unpredictable with climate change, and farmers are among the first to shoulder the burden of weather-related challenges. As risks associated with water access and wildfires become more present, prudent farmers are considering regenerative management to increase resilience on their fields.
At Agriculture Capital, we see regenerative management as a practical risk response, not just an idea. Across our farms, we’ve invested in compost, cover crops, and precision irrigation to build “Soil Wealth”[viii] (healthy soils + retained water). For example:
- On Bixler Ranch in California, these practices delivered a 21% improvement in water use efficiency: achieving 32% yield growth with only 9% more water.
- We’ve also installed groundwater recharge projects at three ranches, replenishing enough water between 2023 and 2024 to farm roughly 500 acres of citrus in dry years.
Climate volatility isn’t going away. The question is whether our food system adapts fast enough to keep pace. If you’re interested in how we’re applying these practices across our farmland portfolio, reach out to [email protected].
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